We’re a Year In. It’s Time for the Checklist!
I asked an AI (copilot) to come up with a checklist of progression toward facism. I must say that it did an excellent job. I’ll present the checklist here, and future posts will detail each category in turn.
Warning Signs of Democratic Backsliding
Stage 1 — Early Democratic Erosion
- Erosion of trust in democratic institutions
- Leaders framing political opponents as existential threats
- Increasing use of conspiracy narratives to explain political setbacks
- Attacks on independent media as “biased,” “fake,” or “enemies”
- Growing tolerance for political violence in rhetoric
- Declining transparency in government decision-making
- Expansion of executive power through “emergency” language
- Attempts to delegitimize courts or regulatory bodies
- Normalization of corruption or conflicts of interest
- Shrinking space for civil society and watchdog groups
Stage 2 — Institutional Capture
- Stacking courts with loyalists
- Politicizing law enforcement and intelligence agencies
- Rewriting rules for elections, voting, or districting to entrench power
- Weakening or replacing independent oversight bodies
- Using state resources to reward allies and punish critics
- Restricting access to public information
- Expanding surveillance powers without proportional oversight
- Pressuring private companies to align with government narratives
- Increasing use of state media or government-aligned outlets
- Criminalizing leaks, whistleblowing, or investigative journalism
Stage 3 — Soft Authoritarianism
- Harassment or legal prosecution of opposition leaders
- Disqualification of candidates on technical or vague grounds
- Restricting protests or requiring burdensome permits
- Expanding definitions of “extremism,” “sedition,” or “national security threats”
- Government-aligned oligarchs acquiring independent media
- Internet throttling, censorship, or algorithmic manipulation
- Loyalty tests for civil servants, educators, or military personnel
- Use of tax audits or regulatory pressure against critics
- State-sponsored disinformation campaigns targeting dissent
- Normalization of paramilitary or vigilante groups aligned with the ruling party
Stage 4 — Hard Authoritarianism
- Elections become symbolic or noncompetitive
- Opposition parties banned or severely restricted
- Judiciary fully subordinated to executive power
- Widespread political imprisonment
- Nationalization or forced takeover of independent media
- Severe restrictions on speech, assembly, and association
- Militarization of domestic policing
- Use of emergency powers without clear end dates
- Constitutional changes enabling indefinite rule
- State ideology enforced through education, culture, and law
Stage 5 — Total Consolidation
- Cult of personality around the leader
- Mandatory ideological education or loyalty rituals
- Criminalization of dissenting identity groups
- State control of the economy to reward loyalty
- Surveillance integrated into daily life (digital or physical)
- Elimination of independent civil society
- State rewriting of history to justify permanent rule
- Use of fear, coercion, or violence as routine governance tools
“`
Now, before you launch into the individual discussions of these stages, take some time and watch this excellent YouTube video: